Convective-scale climate modelling for Croatia: Precipitation and ocean-level extremes
Climate and weather extremes are increasing in strength and frequency in many regions following the global climate change. The only available tools for assessing future changes of extremes are climate models. While the state-of-the-art climate models can reproduce some of the extremes, there is a large group of events that cannot be properly simulated, such as extreme precipitation or local windstorms. This project uses the new generation of climate models, called convection permitting models, to make a step improvement in reproducing extremes, with particular added value for extreme precipitation and local events such as urban heat waves and mountain wind systems. These models are being increasingly used in research and applications because this is the first time that climate models can give realistic assessment of future changes of extreme precipitation. However, these models are prohibitively computationally expensive to be used as tools for offering proper climate information to users and stakeholders. This is because an important component of climate change information is an estimation of uncertainty, which requires a large ensemble of individual simulations. In this project we offer to circumvent this hurdle by developing a methodology for climate simulations of only specific short-lived extreme events, which can decrease the computational cost by about 50 times and thus release enough resources for proper uncertainty estimate. As a result, this project (i) introduces the new generation of climate models as a common tool for the Croatian climate research and applications, (ii) combines academic, operational and user-oriented activities into a common and internationally-competitive framework, and (iii) offers innovative and general solutions for user-tailored applications of these models in impact and risk assessment studies for various stakeholders such as urban developers and policy makers.